Why Windsor-Essex Is the Best Market in Ontario for Brand New BRRRR Right Now
Every real estate strategy works better in some markets than others. The same deal structure that produces reliable 100%+ capital recovery in Windsor-Essex is structurally impossible in Toronto, difficult in Ottawa, and marginal in Hamilton — not because the strategy is different, but because the underlying market economics are.
I have been investing in Windsor-Essex since 2019. I have watched this market through a pandemic-era surge, a significant correction, and the beginning of a new economic cycle driven by one of the largest manufacturing investments in Canadian history.
My assessment of this market, as of now, is that Windsor-Essex offers a combination of conditions for Brand New BRRRR that I have not seen simultaneously at any other point in the eight years I have been building here.
Condition One: Lot Prices at 2019 Levels
Vacant land in Windsor-Essex suitable for multifamily development has dropped more than 50% from its peak. A lot that sold for $260,000 to $280,000 at the top of the market is now available for $120,000 to $145,000 — prices we have not seen in this region since 2019 to 2020.
This matters for Brand New BRRRR because the lot is where equity creation begins before construction starts. A lower land cost reduces your total investment, which improves your capital recovery percentage at refinance. When everything else is held constant, a $130,000 lot versus a $240,000 lot means $110,000 less to recover. That is a meaningful shift.
Why will this change? Windsor-Essex is undergoing sustained economic growth driven primarily by the NextStar Energy plant — a joint venture between Stellantis and LG Energy Solution that represents one of the largest manufacturing investments in Canadian history. Population growth follows economic growth. Economic growth drives land demand. As Windsor-Essex absorbs this new workforce over the next several years, land prices will reflect that demand.
Condition Two: Development Charges Gone or Frozen
Development charges are fees that municipalities levy on new construction to fund infrastructure — roads, sewers, water systems, emergency services. In many Ontario cities, they add $30,000 to $80,000 per unit to the cost of new development. On a 3-unit project, that is $90,000 to $240,000 in additional cost before a shovel touches the ground.
Essex County implemented a Development Charges By-law in late 2025 with a critical provision: zero development charges on new residential construction until January 2028. After that, charges phase in gradually — 25% annually — reaching full rates by 2031. Any project permitted before January 2028 bears zero charges.
Windsor has permanently designated certain zones within the city as exempt from development charges. For lots in these zones, the exemption is built into the city's by-law. Sourcing the right lot in Windsor requires understanding which zones qualify.
Federal and provincial programs have added further relief. Recent government announcements have effectively reduced development charges across Windsor-Essex for a defined period to encourage new housing construction.
On a typical 3-unit project in qualifying Essex County or Windsor exempt zones, the total development charge saving compared to building in a comparable Ontario market is $50,000 to $150,000 per project.
Important: Municipal development charge policies can change with little notice. Always confirm the current development charge status of a specific lot and zone with the municipality directly or through a qualified real estate lawyer before making any investment decisions based on this information.
Why will this change? Essex County's charges begin phasing in from January 2028. Windsor's exempt zones could be amended by future council decisions. The federal and provincial programs have defined time horizons. These are real windows, not permanent conditions.
Condition Three: Construction Pricing No Other Ontario Market Has
New multifamily construction costs in Ontario vary significantly by market:
| Market | Cost / sqft |
|---|---|
| Greater Toronto Area | $350–$500+ |
| Ottawa | $325–$375 |
| Hamilton | $280–$340 |
| London | $260–$320 |
| Windsor-Essex (market rate) | $230–$310 |
| Windsor-Essex (our rate) | ~$200 |
Windsor-Essex is already the most affordable major construction market in Ontario. But through an exclusive builder relationship built over eight years and 20+ personal deals, projects in our portfolio come in at approximately $200/sqft all-in — including HST, design, engineering, permits, and all soft costs. This is below the Windsor market rate.
On a 3-unit project at 3,600 sqft: Windsor market rate at $265/sqft = $954,000 vs our rate at ~$200/sqft = $720,000. The difference of $234,000 flows directly into capital recovery at refinance.
What the Three Conditions Together Produce
Same market. Same appraised value. Same financing rate. The three cost advantages convert a loss of $280,500 in permanently locked capital into a gain of $119,500 in recovered cash. That is the window.
The NextStar Effect on Rental Demand
The same economic growth that will eventually push lot prices higher is also driving rental demand right now. The NextStar workers are arriving. They need housing. Windsor-Essex vacancy rates for quality rental units are tight. New builds in desirable locations — the kind Brand New BRRRR produces — lease quickly at the top of the market.
This is the rare circumstance where the investment opportunity and the economic fundamentals are both working in the investor's favour simultaneously: low input costs and strong demand for the output. Those conditions do not often align. They are aligned now.
Aditya Kumar Soma is a real estate investor with 50+ rental units and a $20M+ portfolio in Windsor-Essex, Ontario. He has been investing in this market since 2019 and executed 20+ Brand New BRRRR projects through its market cycles.